Ok, the logic is basically the following: IPad outsells the PC, and Windows phone is not going to be hot, developers leaving the .NET platform, Office cash cow will no longer be relevant and boom their whole business collapse.
I agree with some of the points but I do not think Microsoft will just collapse. Their stuff are too deeply rooted. There are plenty of folks running Windows XP even it is a decade+ old.
Microsoft is formidable, it showed it can knock out leaders. In the old days... Boom! They knocked WordPerfect out. Boom! They knock Netscape out.
Sometimes even if their products are mediocre they still win. Early versions of Visual C++ did not even have try/catch from standard C++. (Details here) MFC was horrible yet people embraced it. Hmm, was there really good alternatives? Delphi was way way better than Visual Basic and now it is as relevant as the ancient Greek god it references, and Visual Basic reincarnated itself to an inferior looking C#. Nope, C# does not (and will not ever) beat Java.
But they do not always knock the leader out successfully. Do you know someone with Zune player? (I don't)
But they can be a mighty contender. The XBOX knocked quite some marketshare out of Sony and Nintendo in gaming world.
If Microsoft continues to innovate, yes people will still pay.
IPad is not going to dominate the world of computing. It is good for casual web browsing, casual gaming, even movie viewing, but not for heavy duty use (like programming or serious gaming)! I cannot imagine myself able to have a great time with a first person shooter on the IPad or play a version of Street Fighter on it. The IPad does not even get as good wifi signal as my cheap PC laptop and my Android phone. It is overrated!
I think Windows 8 will be the MOST important release for Microsoft. It better be way better than IPad or Android for Microsoft/Nokia to stand a chance. However, given all that tiles that I see so far in previews... I have failed to share enthusiasm.
In order for someone to switch, you need to be BETTER. I switched from yahoo map to google map because I like the ajax feature. I don't bother to use Bing because google map serves me well. Are Microsoft phones better than the Android/Iphone that people will dump them and go to a Windows phone?
I do NOT believe Microsoft will fold altogether, but it will shrink to smaller.
I do NOT believe the PC will go away altogether either. The IPad is not that capable to do so.
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